AI, Tariffs, and Critical Minerals to Permanently Disrupt Global Commerce, Says DMCC Report

A recent DMCC Future of Trade report indicates that AI, tariffs, and competition over critical minerals will significantly alter global commerce. Over 80% of trade leaders predict slow growth and ongoing disruptions, while only 4% foresee a best-case scenario.

AI goods influenced 43% of global merchandise trade growth in early 2025, growing at five times the rate of non-AI goods. Meanwhile, tariffs impact nearly 20% of goods imports. South-South trade, now 35% of global trade, surpasses North-North flows.

The report forecasts a decline in merchandise export growth to 1.9% in 2026, with services exports likely to maintain an edge over goods exports. DMCC emphasized the importance of technology, agility, and strong global connections in adapting to these disruptions.

The findings highlight the role of AI, resilient supply chains, and energy transitions in shaping future trade dynamics. As the trade environment evolves, businesses are encouraged to focus on resilience and technological investments.