NuWays AG Indicates BUY for Verbio SE Amid Potential Ethanol Demand Surge

NuWays AG has updated its recommendation for Verbio SE, suggesting a BUY with a target price of EUR 41 over the next 12 months. The potential introduction of E20 petrol, containing up to 20% ethanol, in Germany and France is seen as a significant catalyst for ethanol demand. Currently, no formal proposal or timeline for E20 adoption exists, but political momentum might accelerate its rollout starting 2027.

The shift from E10 to E20 could require around 5.0 million tons of additional ethanol annually in the EU, depending on vehicle compatibility and adoption. This shift is expected to support European ethanol prices and margins. Verbio could benefit through its European production capacity and international trading, particularly its operations in the US.

The next critical milestone for Verbio will be its Q1’26/27 results on November 12, with expectations for EBITDA to quadruple year-over-year to € 61.5 million, driven by stronger spreads and higher utilisation.