VERBIO SE: Strong Start to FY26/27 Projects Positive Outlook

VERBIO SE is expected to have a promising start to fiscal year 26/27, with its Q1 EBITDA projected to quadruple year-on-year, reaching €61.5 million. Key factors include improved European biodiesel and ethanol spreads, increased utilization in Nevada, and higher German GHG quota prices. Despite the robust performance, the EBITDA is estimated to be 11% lower compared to Q4'25/26 due to normalizing ethanol spreads.

Biodiesel's EBITDA is anticipated to rise by 60% year-on-year, driven by increased market spreads and GHG quota prices. Meanwhile, Bioethanol/Biomethane is expected to contribute positively, although with a decrease compared to the previous quarter. Additionally, an improvement in US profitability is likely to reduce the overall effective tax rate over FY26/27.

NuWays AG maintains a "BUY" recommendation for VERBIO SE, with a target price of €41, citing potential upside from GHG quota prices and biodiesel spreads. The ongoing development in renewable chemicals and US tax incentives further strengthen the investment case.