Original-Research: Global Fashion Group S.A. (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Global Fashion Group S.A.

Company Name:	Global Fashion Group S.A.
ISIN:	LU2010095458
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 0.9
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Christian Sandherr

Operational turnaround around the corner; chg.

Return to growth at key regions. ANZ and LATAM (79% of group NMV) were already showing a return to active customer growth; Q3 +4.7% and +1% respectively. Here, new and reactivated customers outpace churned customers. In our view, this should continue during FY26/27e ultimately allowing for NMV growth despite a still challenging SEA region (likely continued declining active customer numbers). Group NMV looks set to grow by some 4% in FY26e.

SEA operations improving, yet still lagging behind ANZ and LATAM, partially due to different market dynamics (e.g. stagnating online shopping penetration and still low disposable income, € 200 vs € 400 in LATAM and € 1300 in AZN) for which the operational set-up was not ideal (significant overcapacities in anticipation of strong NMV growth). With most of the homework being done, in our view, SEA should be able to return to growth within the next one to two years.

FX headwinds to fade. GFG’s most important currency pairs (AUD/EUR and BRL/EUR) have been moving against the company since Q3 2022, weighing on growth. For instance, in Q3 2025, group NMV decreased by 6.6% yoy but was nearly flat (-0.4% yoy) on constant currency. For FY26, currency headwinds should be significantly less pronounced taking into account exchange rate developments during the past few months.

Continued adj. EBITDA improvements. FY25e is seen to be the first year in which GFG should have reached positive adj. EBITDA (eNuW: € 5.6m) due to improving gross margins thanks to an increasing market place share (39% at the end of Q3), continuous right-sizing efforts, adjustments of product assortments and improving utilization rates at its remaining warehouses/processing facilities (partially through third parties such as H&M using GFG’s facilities in SEA). This trend should continue, with results becoming increasingly more visible as top-line returns to growth in FY26/27e. By FY27e, the adj. EBITDA margin is seen to reach 3% (+9.9pp vs FY23), eNuW.

Convertible bond nearly fully redeemed. At the beginning of the year, GFG announced the plan to redeem additional € 31.8m of its convertible bond (due 2028) using parts of the still large net cash position (eNuW: € 98m at EOY 2025) in mid-March. With this, the company has repurchased € 366m (issue size € 375m) notably below the issue price (average of 81%, eNuW).

In sum, GFG’s management made significant progress transforming the group during the past two years; sub-scale countries were exited, costs notably reduced and go-to-market strategies fine-tuned. During the foreseeable future, GFG should be able to reach positive cash flows. In light of the negative EV (implicitly pricing an insolvency going forward), this should also serve as a significant share price catalyst, in our view. Additional progress in the still challenging SEA region could support an earlier re-rating. We confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged € 0.90 PT based on DCF.
-change of analyst-
 

You can download the research here: global-fashion-group-sa-2026-02-03-update-en-e9372
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++