Original-Research: INDUS Holding AG (von Parmantier & Cie. GmbH): Buy

Strong Q4 and record order book – despite a challenging environment, INDUS will be able to increase revenue and adjusted EBITA in 2026
 
Revenue (€1.735 billion; +0.8%) and adjusted EBITA (€147.8 million; -3.8%) for 2025 had already been provisionally reported. EAT (€69.8 million; +28%) and EPS (2.77; +34%) increased disproportionately. However, this success was aided by one-off effects that had a positive impact on the tax rate. The overall economic environment in 2026 remains challenging and difficult to predict (war in Iran). We expect INDUS to succeed in expanding revenue in 2026 and also increasing adjusted EBITA. Q1, however, could be weaker than the same quarter last year. Based on our estimates, the INDUS share remains attractively valued with a 2026 P/E ratio of 9.4 and a dividend yield of just under 5%.   
 
All three segments are expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2026. In the Infrastructure segment, INDUS anticipates a moderate rise in revenue, accompanied by a sharp increase in earnings. For the Engineering segment, a slight rise in revenue is expected alongside a moderate increase in earnings; the record-high segment order book will only have an impact in the medium term (large-scale plant construction projects in the US). In Materials Solutions in particular, rising raw material prices (which are largely passed on to customers) play a key role in the expected moderate rise in revenue, although margins here will decline.
 
As rising raw material prices (particularly metals) will lead to higher working capital (inventories), free cash flow in 2026 is expected to be lower than in 2025. However, this challenge also presents an opportunity for INDUS, as smaller competitors unable to bear these costs could consequently exit the market.
 
Group outlook: For the 2026 financial year, INDUS is forecasting revenue of between €1.8 billion and €1.95 billion, with adjusted EBITA expected to be between €150 million and €170 million. This corresponds to an adjusted EBITA margin of between 7.5% and 9.5%. FCF is expected to exceed €70 million. 
 
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