Original-Research: OHB SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to OHB SE

Company Name:	OHB SE
ISIN:	DE0005936124
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 202
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Underestimated decade of growth ahead, chg., PT up

OHB’s CMD marked a clear turning point. First, the company plans to remain listed, removing a key overhang. Second, management guided for sustainably rising order intake to more than € 3bn by 2027e, even before factoring in Germany’s newly announced special defence space budget. Third, this new national space budget (€ 35bn) could translate into more than € 7bn of cumulative additional orders for OHB through 2030e. Together, these points materially upgrade OHB’s mid-term growth dynamics, supporting our BUY recommendation.

Following the update and recent news, we now expect a 20% sales CAGR through 2030e, with elevated growth rates likely to persist into the late 2030s (eNuW). In addition, EBIT margins are set to rise to >9% by 2028e, thanks to an improving mix towards defence, which is carrying structurally higher margins.

The above is based on noticeable space budget (EU/ESA/national) increases and OHB’s strong position on the key growth categories: observation, navigation and transportation. Moreover, a clear edge is OHB’s positioning as the only fully German space OEM.

The catalysts are lined up. Next to first big ticket orders expected for H2 ‘26 related to the € 35bn budget promised by Germany’s defence minister, OHB’s investment into Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA, 55.1% ownership, at equity) could reach a milestone – its first test launch, scheduled this summer. RFA is industrialized from the outset, utilising the existing setup of automotive suppliers rather than undergoing complete and costly in-house manufacturing. It is also the only European company employing staged combustion engines, the high-end standard for high-performance launch systems. This creates a clear technological edge in European launch capabilities. A successful launch should act as additional value catalyst. A potential SpaceX IPO later this year is seen as another positive trigger, resetting how markets value space assets. Meanwhile, yesterday, US-based competitor Blue Origin announced yet another significant project containing 5,408 optically interconnected satellites for enterprise and government communication, underscoring that the global race for space dominance is accelerating.

Despite the recent share price rally at OHB, valuations have not run hot, thanks to rising mid-term earnings projections. In fact, at the current market cap OHB would already trade at a discount to its own historic EV/EBIT by 2028e, albeit with an excellent sales and margin momentum, a record backlog coverage and book-to-bill >2x, all projected for 2028e (eNuW).

BUY, new PT € 202 (old: € 142), based on DCF.
 

You can download the research here: ohb-se-2026-01-22-update-en-a7932
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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