Original-Research: Semperit AG Holding (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Semperit AG Holding

Company Name:	Semperit AG Holding
ISIN:	AT0000785555
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 21.5
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Sarah Hellemann

Kicking off the year with a positive margin surprise in SIA

Yesterday, Semperit delivered a strong Q1 with profitability materially ahead of expectations at divisional level, reinforcing confidence that the company can absorb temporary raw material volatility while continuing its operational recovery. Key takeaways:

Order momentum gained. SEA order intake increased yoy, driven by stronger North American belting demand, lifting the order book above Q1 2025 levels. SIA orders declined yoy due to cost pressure and geopolitical uncertainty, but improved qoq, continuing the recovery trend seen in Q4.

Q1 revenue rose by 7.9% yoy to € 164m (eNuW: € 177m), reflecting positive volume effects in SIA and a strong performance in the Business Unit Form in SEA. Against a weak comparable base impacted by project delays and a challenging market environment, the results highlight solid growth across Semperit’s diversified business.

Q1 EBITDA soared by 141% to € 26.8m (preliminary EBITDA: € 26m, eNuW: € 26m), a marked improvement, although against a weak comparable base. This was mainly driven by positive volume effects, enhanced further by pricing and product mix effects, favorable cost of material and services developments and cost saving efforts in FY25 and FY26. The current cost savings program of € 10m annually is ongoing, of which € 6m (eNuW) were completed in FY25 and € 7.5m (eNuW) are completed overall so far. SIAs segment EBITDA margin stood at 27.8% (eNuW: 20.3%), while SEAs segment EBITDA margin came in at 12.3% (eNuW: 10.9%).

Our view on material costs persists. In Q1 Semperit proved to investors it can absorb short-term raw material price hikes over a 4-6 week period with no material effect on margins. With typical delivery times in mind, we expect first cost-based P&L impacts starting late Q2 and more pronounced in H2. In general, supply looks secure for Semperit, due to its diversified sourcing approach, but temporary delays in availability on niche oil-based ingredients could persist in the short-term. In our opinion, this indicates strong potential for further positive pricing action by Semperit. Mind you, this is not yet reflected in Q1 pricing adjustments, which in our view simply reflect general annual negotiations.

Recap on raw material development. Following oil price increases connected to the Iran conflict and supply disruptions in Asia, prices for synthetic rubber sharply increased. Retreating from recent peaks by 12.5% already, normalization appears underway, but Q2 prices are seen to remain volatile and elevated. On certain oil-based ingredients, such as butadiene and paraffinic oils, developments are highly dependent on geolocation. Asia is battling a considerable supply shortage in crude oil, impacting availability and pricing of these, while in Europe political pressure to raise the kerosine product component in crude oil processing is visible.

Timing of Semperit’s production facility ramp-up closely tied to demand strengthening. Semperit has used the cyclical downturn to significantly tighten its cost base, with a current cost savings program still in motion. Additionally, it has invested in its production capacities ahead of a demand recovery, already largely completing the strategic strengthing of hoses and LSR. While exact timing remains uncertain, the strategic groundwork including capacity investments and cost restructuring is largely complete, leaving Semperit well-positioned to capitalize on the catalyst of recovering demand as the cycle turns.

Operational levers in motion including the pricing adjustments, cost control and the ongoing cost savings program should continue to support improvements in Q2, in our opinion.

With a strong Q1 in the books, the guidance continues to appear achievable. Management expects operational EBITDA of € 95m. Given the strong first quarter, we expect operational EBITDA closer to € 100m (eNuW), excluding project costs of approx. € 5m (eNuW). Maintaining BUY at an unchanged PT of € 21.5.

You can download the research here: semperit-ag-holding-2026-05-15-update-en-923bd
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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