Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to THE NAGA GROUP AG

Company Name:	THE NAGA GROUP AG
ISIN:	DE000A41YCM0
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 7.3
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Quality over count, chg.

NAGA's preliminary H1 results mark the first profitable half in the group's history. Sales came in at € 27.7m (-14% yoy), while EBITDA rose 47% yoy (fx-adj. +64% yoy) to € 4.4m and net profit turned positive at € 0.9m, against a € 2.6m loss in H1 25. The EBITDA margin improved 6.6pp yoy to 15.9% vs. just 2.3% in H2 25, reflecting a step-change in the cost base.

Marketing spend was deliberately cut by 25% yoy to € 11.2m, which took funded clients down 35% to c. 10k. The clients NAGA does acquire, however, are worth considerably more. Lifetime value rose 32% to € 2,757, volume per trade more than doubled to € 33.5k and the withdrawal rate fell from 43% to 28%. Net deposits therefore held level yoy despite the much smaller intake, and grew 39% qoq in Q2. Notably, CPA was flat at € 1,117, so the gain in client value did not cost more.

While marketing reductions account for most of the 6.6pp margin expansion (c. 6pp), the rest of the cost base moved in the same direction. Employee, technology and operating expenses declined 20% combined, adding 2.3pp, partly related to AI-supported processes across onboarding, support, reporting and content. Payment processing charges dropped 30% to 6.0% of sales (H1 25: 7.3%) following the Q4 2025 optimisations, worth another 1.3pp. The only offset was a 72% rise in execution and liquidity costs (-3.0pp impact), which management attributes to deliberate risk-management decisions rather than weaker execution.

The revenue mix has also become less dependent on third parties. Internal channels, i.e. digital marketing, influencers and organic, grew from 36% to 53% of sales. Regionally, Europe (34%), the GCC (33%) and Latin America (29%) now contribute roughly a third each, with GCC concentration down from 41%. Separately, the MiCA transitional regime expired on 1 July, leaving providers without authorisation (most notably Binance) unable to serve EU clients. NAGA, licensed since June, is on the right side of that line.

NAGA confirmed the FY26 guidance of € 68-75m sales and € 10-15m EBITDA. The deposit and withdrawal trends described above should help from here, as both lead revenue. Consequently, NAGA enters H2 with a smaller yet better funded and stickier client base, which should support activity from Q3 without requiring a volatility tailwind. Still, in our view, the sales range looks ambitious on the H1 run rate without market volatility increases, requiring 34% yoy growth for the lower end of the guidance range in H2. As a result we trim FY26e sales to € 60m (old: € 64.4m), implying a growth improvement to only 8% yoy. At the same time, we leave EBITDA unchanged at € 9.0m, which strikes us as well underpinned: it needs only € 4.6m in H2 (vs. € 4.4m delivered in H1).

With financial reports being delivered on time, transparency having improved with quarterly updates and now two quarters with positive net profits in the books, the predictability and quality of the story have improved noticeably.

BUY with an unchanged PT of € 7.30, based on DCF.

 

You can download the research here: the-naga-group-ag-2026-08-06-previewreview-en-77563
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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