Original-Research: tonies SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name:	tonies SE
ISIN:	LU2333563281
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 14.5
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Christian Sandherr

Conference feedback: Investment case in full swing

We hosted tonies at our Madrid conference. The key takeways fully underpin our positive view on the investment case:

US expansion, a textbook example for execution. North America sales have compounded at a ~60% CAGR since 2022, reaching € 276m in FY25, and we expect constant-currency growth of 32% this year. Retail execution is a key driver: tonies is now listed in every Target store with shelf space recently increased by 50%, only few brands command more real shelf space in the toys section. Walmart coverage already stands at roughly half of all locations, still leaving meaningful room to grow. In the US (but also UK), TikTok Shop is emerging as attractive distribution channel at significantly lower commissions than traditional wholesale margins, a notable margin tailwind versus brick-and-mortar. In order to support the NA growth journey, tonies hired Mark McColgan as new NA General Manager, a former executive at Mattel US.

Further market expansion in the cards. While focus is currently on gaining traction in the US, the company indicated that further market entries are possible in the years to come (eNuW: from FY27e onwards). Mind you, the company has developed 20 Spanish-language figurines that are actively being purchased by Spanish-speaking parents in the US, a clear signal of organic, data-driven demand that de-risks potential market entries.

Exceptional engagement & brand metrics. Even at ~50% household penetration in DACH, the growth runway remains intact: customers purchase on average 20 figurines over 4.5 years, implying double-digit recurring revenue potential even in a fully mature market. In the US, an NPS of 77, surpassing Apple, Netflix, and Amazon, underpins tonies' word-of-mouth flywheel. Parents are proactively downloading the app simply to check for new figurine releases, a powerful indicator of ecosystem stickiness. Notably, tonies was the most-downloaded app globally during the holiday season, a remarkable achievement for a physical toy company.

Massive content portfolio, a significant moat. The total figurine catalogue has grown to 1,300, though not all are in active production. Management applies rigorous SKU discipline: underperforming figurines are discontinued. Two major launches are confirmed for summer 2026: Monopoly (via Hasbro) and Pokémon. In fact, tonies has reached a state where licensors approach the companies to better promote their brands.

CMD in June, the next major catalyst. The CMD should deliver mid-term financial targets, capital allocation clarity and a roadmap for US/international margins converging toward DACH's 23% EBITDA level. Management expressed explicit confidence in reaching ~20% EBITDA margins internationally, a significant step-up from current levels.

BUY with an unchanged € 14.50 PT based on DCF.
 

You can download the research here: tonies-se-2026-04-29-update-en-5c3e9
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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